I'm about to drop a cold, hard truth-bomb...
I'm not a professional general manager.
BOOM!
I know your mind just exploded, but it's true.
Anyway, what I'm saying is that if I was a general manager (again I'm really not), I would hand out a lot more contracts like the one the Cleveland Indians just gave Carlos Carrasco, 28. For those of you not familiar, they agreed on a 4 year- $22 million contract. That shakes out to $5.5 million per year.
Now Carrasco is far from a sure thing as a top of the rotation guy, but he did have an encouraging season last year. He had 9.4 K/9 and an impressive 4.83 K/BB. Also, his FIP was just 2.44, suggesting that it wasn't a fluky season, but a sign of things to come.
While we should expect some regression to the mean with Carrasco and can't expect him to post a 2.55 ERA over the next four seasons, all the metrics suggest that Carrasco has what it takes to be a very good starting pitcher.
This isn't an (article? blog post? stupid collection of words?) about Carrasco, though, it's more about the type of contract he was given. We've seen it before, a player in his twenties being locked up to a long term, rather low per year deal. Andrew Friedman was notorious for doing this with the Rays. For example, he locked up Chris Archer to a 6 year/$25 million deal when Archer was 25. Matt Moore got a 5 year/$14 million extension at just 22. Most notably, he gave Evan Longoria a 6 year/$17.5 million extension with an upside of $44.5 million over 9. These are good deals. Andrew Friedman is smart, so Andrew Friedman made these deals. (Logic!)
Why are they smart? Well, for a small market team like Tampa, the deals allow them to maintain their homegrown stars for a longer time and at a relatively low average salary. For a big market team like the Yankees, these deals also make sense because if the player fails, it's not a big deal to just eat the money they owe him. For example, if the Yankees decided to give Michael Pineda an extension in the range of 4 year/$30 million (give or take x million, I can not stress enough how bad I am at projecting contracts), to kick in starting in the 2016 season, I think that would be a really smart move, for both the Yankees and Pineda.
Pineda, when not injured or poorly concealing pine tar, has been a really good pitcher. I don't want to bore you with numbers, just kidding I do. He has a lifetime FIP of 3.16 and a 3.78 K/BB ratio in 253.1 innings. Last year, he was filthy, posting a 2.61 SIERA, 2.71 FIP, and 8.43 (!) K/BB ratio. So, yeah, when he's not a bonehead or hurt, he's pretty freaking good. I recognize the inherit risk he carries, but (please don't yell at me) he has shown flashes of a pitcher who can command $100 million when he hits free agency. Having a guy with that much upside and skill through his age 30 season at just 7 to 8 million dollars per year is really a bargain. If it doesn't work out, they're the Yankees and can afford to eat the money. It's not like its a huge, burdening contract.
The deals also make sense for the players, however. Look at Carrasco, first. Last season was the first in which he did not spend any time in the minors. Sure, the way he pitched suggested that if he continued like that and hit free agency eventually, he could be taking home a big contract, but when you have had just one, albeit good, season in the majors and you are offered $22 million, you probably take it.
Same goes for Pineda. He started 28 games in 2011, then missed two full season with injuries, and only started 13 last year. Sure, he's looked awesome, but if you were a guy with his background of injuries and uncertainty, and you were offered $30 million, I imagine you take it. The deal also allows him to hit free agency when he's 30/31 and, if he pitches well enough, get that huge contract.
So what have we learned:
1) I'm not a general manager
2) Long term/low AAV extensions can benefit both the teams and players
3) More contracts like this should happen
FIN
Sources:
fangraphs.com
mlbtraderumors.com
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=3353025
Thursday, April 9, 2015
The Unique Case of Jason Heyward's Free Agency
In the 2015-2016 offseason, Jason Heyward will hit free agency.
Heyward doesn't turn 26 until August, yet he has already put together an impressive career. He's got the accolades: 2nd place ROY finisher in 2010, an All Star appearance, two top 28 MVP finishes, and two Gold Gloves, but more important than these feats which are way too subjective for my liking, he's got the statistics to back it up.
Through 683 games, Heyward has a .345 wOBA, .781 OPS and a 117 wRC+. While none of these statistics are elite, they are considered above average, and don't forget he's amassed these numbers while only in his early 20's. Many believe that a player doesn't truly begin to peak until he's 27, which would be his age in his first season of his new contract. Some of have debunked this myth, but regardless, it's hard to argue against the idea that players usually enjoy their offensive prime in their late 20s. This means that Heyward's prime offensive years are actually available in free agency, that is huge.
The thing that Heyward has established on himself on, however, is his defense. He's widely regarded as one of, if not the, best defensive outfielder in baseball, and he's got the numbers to prove it. Last season he ranked second among all outfielders (1st among RFs) in UZR, and 5th for outfielders (1st for RFs) in Def. He also led all of baseball in Defensive Runs Saved (DRS). This isn't a one year anomaly either, he's been playing stellar defense since 2012 and has the tools to continue to be an elite defender for quite some time.
What makes Heyward so unique is that he will be a near All Star caliber player hitting free agency at just 26! It is not often a player like that hits the market at that young of an age. It's rare because a player must accrue 6 full years of service time before becoming an eligible free agent. Heyward happened to get his first year of full service team in his age 20 season, younger than most. You will usually see a player of his caliber extended, like the Angels did with Trout, but the Braves traded Heyward and unless the Cardinals extend him this season, unlikely given the amount of he'll command, Mr. Heyward will hit the open market.
I don't know how much Heyward get. Some say they see a Crawford like contract, others say he could hit $200 million. I'm not here to project that, but I can project that he will make whatever team signs him very happy.
Being the best defensive outfielder in the game and being able to sell his offensive prime definitely makes Heyward a unique free agent case.
Statistics provided by fangraphs.com
Heyward doesn't turn 26 until August, yet he has already put together an impressive career. He's got the accolades: 2nd place ROY finisher in 2010, an All Star appearance, two top 28 MVP finishes, and two Gold Gloves, but more important than these feats which are way too subjective for my liking, he's got the statistics to back it up.
Through 683 games, Heyward has a .345 wOBA, .781 OPS and a 117 wRC+. While none of these statistics are elite, they are considered above average, and don't forget he's amassed these numbers while only in his early 20's. Many believe that a player doesn't truly begin to peak until he's 27, which would be his age in his first season of his new contract. Some of have debunked this myth, but regardless, it's hard to argue against the idea that players usually enjoy their offensive prime in their late 20s. This means that Heyward's prime offensive years are actually available in free agency, that is huge.
The thing that Heyward has established on himself on, however, is his defense. He's widely regarded as one of, if not the, best defensive outfielder in baseball, and he's got the numbers to prove it. Last season he ranked second among all outfielders (1st among RFs) in UZR, and 5th for outfielders (1st for RFs) in Def. He also led all of baseball in Defensive Runs Saved (DRS). This isn't a one year anomaly either, he's been playing stellar defense since 2012 and has the tools to continue to be an elite defender for quite some time.
What makes Heyward so unique is that he will be a near All Star caliber player hitting free agency at just 26! It is not often a player like that hits the market at that young of an age. It's rare because a player must accrue 6 full years of service time before becoming an eligible free agent. Heyward happened to get his first year of full service team in his age 20 season, younger than most. You will usually see a player of his caliber extended, like the Angels did with Trout, but the Braves traded Heyward and unless the Cardinals extend him this season, unlikely given the amount of he'll command, Mr. Heyward will hit the open market.
I don't know how much Heyward get. Some say they see a Crawford like contract, others say he could hit $200 million. I'm not here to project that, but I can project that he will make whatever team signs him very happy.
Being the best defensive outfielder in the game and being able to sell his offensive prime definitely makes Heyward a unique free agent case.
Statistics provided by fangraphs.com
Tuesday, April 7, 2015
Introduction
Hi! Welcome to SportStatsandStuff. This is a blog dedicated to sports, statistics in sports, statistics in other areas of life, and more random things!
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