Thursday, April 9, 2015

The Unique Case of Jason Heyward's Free Agency

In the 2015-2016 offseason, Jason Heyward will hit free agency.

Heyward doesn't turn 26 until August, yet he has already put together an impressive career. He's got the accolades: 2nd place ROY finisher in 2010, an All Star appearance, two top 28 MVP finishes, and two Gold Gloves, but more important than these feats which are way too subjective for my liking, he's got the statistics to back it up.

Through 683 games, Heyward has a .345 wOBA, .781 OPS and a 117 wRC+. While none of these statistics are elite, they are considered above average, and don't forget he's amassed these numbers while only in his early 20's. Many believe that a player doesn't truly begin to peak until he's 27, which would be his age in his first season of his new contract. Some of have debunked this myth, but regardless, it's hard to argue against the idea that players usually enjoy their offensive prime in their late 20s. This means that Heyward's prime offensive years are actually available in free agency, that is huge.

The thing that Heyward has established on himself on, however, is his defense. He's widely regarded as one of, if not the, best defensive outfielder in baseball, and he's got the numbers to prove it. Last season he ranked second among all outfielders (1st among RFs) in UZR, and 5th for outfielders (1st for RFs) in Def. He also led all of baseball in Defensive Runs Saved (DRS). This isn't a one year anomaly either, he's been playing stellar defense since 2012 and has the tools to continue to be an elite defender for quite some time.

What makes Heyward so unique is that he will be a near All Star caliber player hitting free agency at just 26! It is not often a player like that hits the market at that young of an age. It's rare because a player must accrue 6 full years of service time before becoming an eligible free agent. Heyward happened to get his first year of full service team in his age 20 season, younger than most. You will usually see a player of his caliber extended, like the Angels did with Trout, but the Braves traded Heyward and unless the Cardinals extend him this season, unlikely given the amount of he'll command, Mr. Heyward will hit the open market.

I don't know how much Heyward get. Some say they see a Crawford like contract, others say he could hit $200 million. I'm not here to project that, but I can project that he will make whatever team signs him very happy.

Being the best defensive outfielder in the game and being able to sell his offensive prime definitely makes Heyward a unique free agent case.

Statistics provided by fangraphs.com



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